Indian government is at a lose end in Afghanistan and the blame should go on it timid foreign policy and its obsession with noisy domestic constituencies.
Sanjay Kapoor Delhi
India is faced with a difficult conundrum. India's strategic establishment is at a loss to leverage $ 1.5 billion development assistance to war torn Afghanistan and stirring public support to stymie Pakistan's attempt to neuter them. London Conference on Afghanistan has deepened this gloom in India's foreign ministry after the way British and the Americans mollycoddled the Pakistanis by endorsing their line that Islamabad was best qualified to deal with the Afghanistan problem.
Foreign media reports indicate that Pakistan conveyed its desire to the Americans to play a bigger role in Afghanistan as it has been wary of India's growing influence. The same old strategy of unleashing the bearded Taliban to oust the Soviet backed regime of Najibullah has been re-packaged by the Pakistan Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) to provide a justification for a quick exit for the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. London Conference made it amply clear that the Western powers, who tried to prove that they were engaged in a just war in Afghanistan for the last so many years, were desperate to get out even if it meant consciously handing over the baton of running Afghanistan to those very people who were spreading terror and murdering human rights. Fig leaf for the US and British government's volte face on Afghanistan has been provided through a nuanced spin doctoring by the likes of author Ahmed Rashid who have painstakingly tried to prove that Taliban and its leader Mullah Omar had little to do with al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. Evidence of Omar's innocence in the vicious 9/11 attack at World Trade Center and his mythical sway over the Pashtuns was cleverly inserted in the evolving Afghan narrative. Omar was shown as a tough administrator who could tether warlords and others who were heaping organized violence on the people of Afghanistan.
Ignoring Indian objections to the differentiation between "Good" and "Bad" Taliban, the London Conference also decided to create a corpus to wean away the dithering Taliban.
Indians want US led International Security Forces to stay in Afghanistan and to complete their military and political objectives. In fact US President Barack Obama's decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan within 18 months surprised India. Before Obama unveiled his Afghan strategy, Prime Minister Singh had told an Indian diplomat that he did not believe that US will leave Kabul. The diplomat wanted to know from the PM, Hardnews learns, whether India had plan to safeguard its interests if Americans decide to pack their bags. M K Narayanan, who was recently removed from his post of National Security Advisor (NSA), was asked to put together a strategy in the event of Washington decides to leave Afghans to fend for themselves.
So does India have a strategy for Afghanistan? Hardnews found Indian foreign policy establishment taken aback by the turn of events. "We are being marginalized and we do not know what to do," said a senior Foreign Service official. Much of the blame for this setback should go to the timidity displayed by Indian government when it comes to playing for higher stakes. Indians wanted to ride on the US presence without really dirtying their hands or putting their boots on the ground. It was a good strategy as long as the Americans indulged in Delhi. After the US government under Obama had a rethink on its options, India could not bring any idea on the table to remain relevant and also contribute by cracking the Afghan imbroglio.
India also failed to use the toehold the US provided to enlarge its influence in different Afghan political formations. They made no attempt to strengthen ties with the Pashtuns and others tribes. Indians could have also used the considerable clout of Deoband seminary, located near Saharanpur in India, to engage with Taliban. After all the Talibanis swear by Deoband School and judicious engagement could have produced interesting results. So blinkered and scared is the Indian government about domestic public opinion that they routinely do not permit Islamic scholars from the sub-continent and beyond to visit Deoband. Expression of such fears about how competing domestic constituencies are going to perceive their actions has robbed the government of India the ascendancy that it would have enjoyed in the neighborhood.
All is not really lost for India in Afghanistan. After all Pakistan's latest prescriptions are little different from what it had offered after Soviets left Afghanistanin the late '80's. And what happened after that is history. The moot question is- will the US allow history to be repeated.
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